Trump protectionism and sanctions will worsen global instability

Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump has made a series of decisions that are reshaping the global order, often at the expense of developing countries. Programmes like the United Society Against Fraud, Waste, and Abuse and the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief have been halted, causing economic consequences already being felt in many nations.

In addition to withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organsation, moves expected to severely impact developing countries, Trump has resorted to sanctions and tariffs as foreign policy tools. These actions are directed at any country that does not align with US interests.

One notable example is Trump’s use of tariffs to pressure Colombia into accepting US military flights carrying deported migrants. But as the world faces unprecedented challenges, the question arises: Will global tensions persist with threats of sanctions and tariffs?

Global cooperation is more critical than ever. World leaders need to work together to promote economic growth. Instead of coercion and confrontation, consensus-building and collaboration are key to overcoming the pressing problems of today.

Protectionism, particularly in an era where multilateralism is gaining traction, will only exacerbate global instability. Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on countries like Canada, Mexico, and China, which could target over 40 per cent of global imports, risk igniting trade wars and further disrupting the international supply chain.

Immediately after his inauguration, Trump threatened a 100 per cent tariff on BRICS nations if they pursued de-dollarisation. However, BRICS represents a collective effort by emerging economies to establish a more inclusive and sustainable global financial system. These nations, which account for over 45 per cent of the global population and 45 per cent of global oil production, cannot be ignored. Instead of antagonising them, the US should engage constructively to find a common ground.

The ongoing efforts by BRICS to reduce reliance on the US dollar including trading in national currencies and setting up alternative financial institutions should be seen as an attempt to create a more diversified and resilient global economy. This shift is not about disrupting global trade but ensuring stability in case one currency or system fails. If the US dollar were to falter, the world would still have viable alternatives, minimising damage to global markets.

The history of sanctions shows that they often fail to destabilise powerful economies. For example, Russia’s experience with Western sanctions in 2014 and 2022 did not result in economic collapse. Instead, Russia built its own financial infrastructure such as the System for Transfer of Financial Messages and the Mir payment card, which helped shield its economy from external pressures.

Rather than viewing BRICS’s moves as a threat, they should be recognised as part of a broader effort to promote a more equitable and balanced global economy. By fostering alternative financial systems and reducing reliance on a single currency, these nations are ensuring that global trade remains resilient, even if one dominant player falters.

Mr Onyango is a journalist and communications consultant