The 2027 conspiracy

President William Ruto’s decision to scrap a 60-year-old vetting requirement for people in North Eastern Kenya will have far-reaching effects on the politics of the country and the outcome of the 2027 General Election.

The decision points to a president whose focus has shifted to the northern frontiers whose residents have been crying out to successive administrations to lift the requirement of screening applicants from the region before issuance of ID cards and passports.

His decision comes only a few days after a landmark verdict by the High court sitting in Garissa invalidated census reports of 2019 for Wajir, Mandera and Garissa counties citing discrepancies in the results given.

It is instructive that while announcing the proclamation, the President taunted his critics wondering whether he looked like a one-term president.

This was also on a day when Dennis Itumbi, the Head of Creative Economy and Special Projects in the Executive Office of the President published figures showing that the population of the counties whose census results had been scrapped was higher than some sections of Mt Kenya which propelled Kenya Kwanza to the presidency.

High Court ruling

“Random fact: Mandera population 983,0000. Nyeri 844,000. Kirinyaga 658, 000. Nyandarua 638,289. Embu 608,000.  That is post-census suppression. Fertility rate? Mandera 7.7 children per woman. Nyeri 3.1, Kirinyaga 2.8, Nyandarua 3.6, Embu 3.1,” he posted in his X account.

Itumbi however did not explain the source of his data since the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) had been invalidated by the High Court.

The Kenya Kwanza digital strategist went on with the claim “..note the headroom for new voters is higher in Garissa than in Nyeri.

‘‘Nyeri has more than 90 per cent of eligible voters registered. Mandera because of skewed ID issuance and suppressed population count has less than 40 per cent of eligible voters registered.’’

Yesterday, lawyer Ahmednasir Abdullahi, another close ally of the President termed the decision to scrap the vetting requirement as historic for the oppressed and marginalised people of the region and urged the United Democratic Movement (UDM), a party affiliated to North Eastern that it must spearhead drive to register new 3.5 million registered votes in the re before 2027.’

Statistics from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, the North Eastern region registered voters are Mandera (217,030), Garissa (201,473) Wajir (207,758) Marsabit (166,912) Isiolo (89,504) totalling to 882,677 voters.

Going by Ahmednasir’s projections, the number of voters will spike by 337.5 per cent which means there will be an additional 2.7 million registered voters.

 Coincidentally, of the 7.1 million votes that Ruto got in the 2022 General Election, 3.5 million came from the Mt Kenya region which has now been jeopardized by the fallout with his former Deputy Rigathi Gachagua.

Interestingly, the same number that gave Ruto a resounding victory is the same number Ruto’s allies are seeking to have registered following Ruto’s proclamation.

 Several MPs sponsored by the UDM party and other former elected leaders exuded confidence that attaining lawyer Ahmednasir’s calculation is tenable. They cited voter suppression and conspiracy by the past regimes to deny the region’s true representation of the population and voter registration.

According to Abdi Mude former Laffey MP, the region will participate in forming future governments, a chance he claimed had been denied to the region because of victimisation.

“It is a new dawn for our region, we have always had numbers but due to conspiracy theories, we have been denied our say and influence in the national bargaining table to chart the country’s wayward but this will be a thing of the past as we now have a chance of producing the President of this great republic,” he said in a phone interview.

On her part, East Africa Legislative Assembly MP Falhadha Iman Dekow said the removal of the vetting process for Kenyans obtaining national ID cards was a momentous step toward fostering unity and eradicating historical injustices.

“We extend our deepest gratitude to the President for his visionary leadership and unwavering commitment to inclusivity,” she said.

 Wajir Governor Ahmed Abdullahi, an ODM Governor, assured the President that following his ‘‘historic move’’ all the votes from North Eastern will go into him saying: “Nobody should threaten Ruto about 2027, the problem was the issuance of the national identity cards but now we shall have them. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Mwai Kibaki failed to deliver but now that Ruto has delivered we shall support him,” he said.

The past voting pattern shows that the region has been supporting Raila Odinga in presidential elections but this changed in 2017 when Uhuru bagged some from the region in 2017.

President Ruto’s move also coincided with the landmark ruling delivered last month in a petition filed by Abdullahi Bashir Sheik and 24 others. The petitioners accused   KNBS of overseeing the anomaly, claiming that the November 2019 census was not a factual representation of the total population in the region.

They further accused KNBS of altering the population numbers, arguing that it impacted their social, economic and political standing as other Kenyans stood to gain more resources.

Disputed figures

“In view of the disobedience of the court order for scrutiny to verify the truth on the disputed figures, the order that is commendable to the court is to quash the 2019 census results for the affected areas in the North Eastern three counties (Mandera, Wajir and Garissa),” read court papers in part.

But as the North Eastern region celebrated political and security analysts warned there were all reasons to worry following the President’s proclamation.

“Ruto’s North Eastern move is purely a conspiracy theory but we are not scared of this political move, even if he was to transport people from neighbouring countries to register as voters. We will beat him with more than five million votes in the 2027 election. The contest for the 2027 will be Ruto versus the ordinary Kenyans,’’ said James Gakuya, Embakasi North MP.

Prof Peter Kagwanja, a governance, security and African affairs analyst said Ruto’s move is purely political aimed at compensating what he had lost in Mt Kenya region.

“It’s called the hunter-gatherer strategy. Because the main farm is no longer accessible, you want to get your supplies from alternative sources. And North Eastern is seen as a source of votes. But that is fuelling conspiracy theories as well, that he’s going to inflate the population of the North Eastern and also fuel nationalism within that region in a manner that is not going to be helpful to the stability of the country,’’ Kagwanja said.

Security expert George Musamali who has served in the police service and was also required to undergo vetting to obtain his identity card having come from the border of Uganda and Kenya termed Ruto’s proclamation dangerous to the country saying it should not be celebrated by anybody including the Kenyan Somalis.

“It has far-reaching social, political, security and economic negativities while it may achieve the political purpose, it may attract aliens from border communities of Ethiopia, Uganda, Somalia and Tanzania who will enjoy services in Kenya without paying taxes as they will be factored in the country’s budget,” Musamali said.

He noted that vetting existed to distinguish Kenyan Somalis from Somalis, and Kenyan Oromos from those of Ethiopians and Boranas from both countries. The Maasais from Tanzania and Kenya, and the Bukhusu from Uganda and Kenya in bid to avoid elements from the neighbouring countries from crossing over and enjoying resources or conducting crimes, and leaving Kenyans to take the blame.

‘‘There is a reason why vetting existed but those of us who are against this administration are not scared as no amount of political theatrics will save Ruto from going home in 2027, said Embakasi Central MP, Benjamin Gathiru