Raila Odinga's defining moment is finally here

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is entering a defining week in his political career. His place in history as one of the foremost opposition politicians is already guaranteed.

But Raila will know this week whether he will add another feather to his cap as he seeks to replace Moussa Faki Mahamat as the African Union Commission chairperson.

Forty-nine heads of state and government from across the continent assemble in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Saturday and Sunday to elect the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson. The vote will have ripples in Kenya’s political scene.

Secret ballot

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READ: Raila AUC chair bid advances as 28 votes secured

He has met presidents and prime ministers from the continent’s four corners, securing endorsements and acknowledgements from foreign capitals.

By Sunday, the former premier will have known whether his efforts, which also include an intense shuttle diplomacy led by President William Ruto and top government officials, will pay off. Raila’s campaign secretariat said last week that they estimated the Opposition chief had secured endorsements from 28 countries, but did not reveal the nations.

Raila faces Youssouf and former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato and needs two-thirds of the vote to secure victory in the first round. 

According to the AUC’s guidelines, if no candidate receives a two-thirds majority in any of the earlier rounds, the vote should last five rounds.

“If the remaining candidate, fails to obtain the two-thirds majority required in that round, the chairperson shall suspend the election,” the election guidelines read in part.

The co-chairperson of Raila’s AUC campaign secretariat, Elkanah Odembo, said they “still had work to do” as they hoped to secure a first-round win.

“Candidate Raila Amollo Odinga has covered significant ground in the last six weeks.

‘‘He has gone door-to-door to various capitals, and in most places been able to meet with the head of state. His energy level is remarkable,” said Odembo

As Raila holds his breath, President Ruto is crossing his fingers. Opposition politicians, ambitious to unseat the Head of State, will also follow the events in Addis Ababa closely.

ALSO READ: Raila : Why I am best suited for AUC job

For Ruto, he will be hoping that his investment in Raila’s candidacy will pay off. He is growing increasingly unpopular in the Mount Kenya region and in attempts to plug the gap, he appears keen to secure the former prime minister’s traditional bases.

Since the pair formed their broad-based partnership last July, Ruto has enjoyed an enthusiastic reception in tours of Nyanza. A host of Raila’s allies within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) have also thrown their weight behind Ruto, declaring support for his re-election bid.

The President is already assembling a team of loyalists from the region who will drive his Nyanza campaign. Sources said the “dream team” will comprise governors and lawmakers, who will spring to action if Raila wins the AUC seat.

A Raila win would undoubtedly help the President win over followers in the former premier’s Nyanza. That, of course, is assuming the Opposition veteran will back Ruto’s 2027 bid.

Raila enjoys unquestionable following in his backyard, where he holds the power to make or break careers.

“Ruto will get a big chunk of Raila’s constituency,” said Gitile Naituli, a professor of leadership and management.

“If Raila wins, Ruto will have also shown that the continent’s leaders respect him.”

He said the President would win massively from a Raila win, but argued that ODM would be the biggest beneficiary, even as he pointed out that the opposition party could split up if the former prime minister exits the local political stage.

“It gives ODM the chance to front a fresh candidate and looking at how weak Ruto is, it would be unwise for ODM to support Ruto,” said Prof Naituli, who also said Kenya stands to benefit.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, a Ruto critic who opposes an alliance between ODM and the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), also made the argument recently.

“Looking at the political dynamics in the country right now, it would be very imprudent for ODM not to field a presidential candidate in 2027.

‘‘ODM just needs to retain all its constituencies because Ruto has lost almost half of his constituencies in Mt Kenya,” Sifuna said last month.

The feeling among anti-Ruto ODM members is that the Head of State is too weak to call the shots and that the Opposition has a realistic chance of unseating him.

“Should Raila win the AUC chair, Kenya’s political space will witness unprecedented change because Raila may not be in the presidential race. Ruto and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi will secure political capital on account of their support of Raila for AUC candidature,” said political risk analyst Dismas Mokua.

Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi does not think Ruto would gain from Raila’s victory.

“Kenya wins. The position would be the country’s, not an individual’s and that is why his colleagues in Azimio and the government have wished him well,” he said.

Raila’s win could see other players lose. If the victory cements the Opposition politician’s truce with Ruto then the biggest casualties could be Raila’s allies in the Opposition.

ALSO READ: AUC bid: Win or lose, Raila Odinga still a big force

Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka has supported Raila in three successive elections hoping that he would inherit the former premier’s bases.

Working arrangement

Kalonzo’s chances of getting that endorsement are thinning by the day and could be mortally dented if Raila exits the local stage. Mwangangi noted that Raila and Ruto “have struck a working arrangement.”

As Mokua argues, others who stand to lose from a Raila win include “politicians who have hung on Raila’s coattails to secure ODM party primaries tickets and ODM politicians who use the Raila name for pecuniary advantages.”

If Raila loses, analysts argued, the implications will be severe for the Head of State.

“If he loses we lose as a country but whoever has been leading the campaign will be the biggest casualty. Raila will return and continue his political undertakings,” said Mwangangi.

Mokua noted that candidates hoping for Raila’s endorsement, such as Ruto and Kalonzo, would be hurt if the former premier returned to local politics.

Naituli said a Raila loss would show that Ruto was yet to make a significant mark across the continent.